El Nino winners and losers declared

Journal Article · Fri Mar 08 04:00:00 EST 1991 · Science (Washington, D.C.); (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.251.4998.1182· OSTI ID:5706978

Kerr, R A

Last spring human forecasters thought they saw signs of an imminent warming of the tropical Pacific, a classic El Nino, that could wreak havoc with weather around the globe. Researchers running computer models, on the other hand, saw a slight warming but not enough for an El Nino. The modelers were right. The season for El Ninos has ended and nothing happened. Since the models came online about 5 years ago, there have been two contests to predict El Ninos, which occur every 3 to 7 years, and the models have won both. The models are still experimental, but the general feeling is that they're indicating the right trends. The prospect of having reliable El Nino prediction models is good news beyond the small coterie of tropical Pacific specialists. Worldwide weather patterns are closely tied to El Nino cycles.

• OSTI ID: 5706978
• Journal Information: Science (Washington, D.C.); (United States), Journal Name: Science (Washington, D.C.); (United States) Vol. 251:4998; ISSN SCIEA; ISSN 0036-8075
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540110*
540210 -- Environment
Terrestrial-- Basic Studies-- (1990-)
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE
FORECASTING
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
OCEANIC CIRCULATION
SEAS
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
SURFACE WATERS