Assessing future metals demand in less-developed countries: another look at the leapfrog effect
Technical changes originating in advanced industrial counties influence the intensity of use of metals in less developed countries (LDC's). However, these changes can have positive as well as negative leapfrog effects. Today's populous LDC's are at a stage of development comparable to that of the United States on or before 1920. Some technical changes that have occurred since that date have reduced the intensity of metal use, most notably by encouraging reductions in the metal content of products. Other changes have encouraged greater intensity of metal use, for example by stimulating greater expenditures on durable goods. On balance, it is not clear that LCD economies today at an intermediate development stage are less metal-intensive than was the United States economy at a comparable stage. These results suggest that rapid economic growth in LDC's could have a major positive impact on world metal demand in the balance of this century. 8 references, 4 tables.
- Research Organization:
- Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park
- OSTI ID:
- 6981157
- Journal Information:
- Mater. Soc.; (United States), Vol. 10:3
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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