Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of simulated concentrations of radionuclides in milk
The PATHWAY model predicts concentrations of radionuclides in milk and other foods in the southwestern US during the period of atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons in Nevada. Consumption of contaminated milk was one of the most important sources of dose for local residents. This study incorporated variations associated with pasture use by commercial dairy farmers into PATHWAY and examined the effects of these variations on time-integrated concentrations of I-131 and Cs-137 in milk. The uncertainty in estimates of integrated concentrations and the sensitivity of the concentrations to changes in model parameters were studied for two agricultural regimes. Parameter sensitivity was assessed on several scales using various techniques. Influential parameters tend to be associated with the most direct pathway for milk contamination. These include the foliar interception fraction, which determines the initial concentration for pasture; the fraction of a dairy cow's diet obtained from pasture; and the production rate of milk. Variations in the timing of pasture use are important for short-lived radionuclides when a fallout event occurs while cows are going onto or coming off of pasture. 44 refs., 9 figs., 4 tabs.
- Research Organization:
- Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins (USA). Dept. of Radiology and Radiation Biology
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC08-86NV10503
- OSTI ID:
- 6903542
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/NV/10503-T1; ON: DE88016824
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
Terrestrial-- Radioactive Materials Monitoring & Transport-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ALKALI METAL ISOTOPES
ANIMALS
BETA DECAY RADIOISOTOPES
BETA-MINUS DECAY RADIOISOTOPES
BIOLOGICAL MATERIALS
BODY FLUIDS
CATTLE
CESIUM 137
CESIUM ISOTOPES
COMPUTER CODES
CONTAMINATION
COWS
DAYS LIVING RADIOISOTOPES
DOMESTIC ANIMALS
DOSES
ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION
ECOSYSTEMS
ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE PATHWAY
ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPORT
FALLOUT
FALLOUT DEPOSITS
FOOD
FOOD CHAINS
INTERMEDIATE MASS NUCLEI
IODINE 131
IODINE ISOTOPES
ISOTOPES
MAMMALS
MASS TRANSFER
MATERIALS
MILK
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
NUCLEI
ODD-EVEN NUCLEI
P CODES
RADIATION DOSES
RADIOECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION
RADIOISOTOPES
RADIONUCLIDE MIGRATION
RUMINANTS
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
SOILS
TESTING
VERTEBRATES
WEAPONS
YEARS LIVING RADIOISOTOPES