Prospects for oil and gas production

Journal Article · Thu Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1973 · Drilling Contract.; (United States)

OSTI ID:6894355

Pennell, M M

What is the discovery rate of new reserves going to be over the next 10 or 15 yr. By the time that Prudhoe Bay comes on production, the non-Communist world will be consuming oil at more than 2 Prudhoe bays a year. If demand for oil were to increase between now and 1985 at the same rate that has ruled over the last 20 yr (7.5% per annum), then in the single year 1985, 4 Prudhoe bays would be consumed, or the complete contents of one northern North Sea Basin. If 3 new Prudhoe bays cannot be found during every year between now and 1985, the growth rate to which we have become accustomed cannot be sustained. Even if 30 billion bbl of new reserves is found each year until 1985, the current growth rates can be sustained only until 1985, by which time the requirement for continued growth would become 4 or 5 new Prudhoe bays a year. If the world is relying on a continuing 7.5% growth rate, then it is going to be 16 or 17 million bbl a day short by 1985. Tar sands, shale, coal, and nuclear power are all going to be needed whether or not they are developed in time to compensate for the inability of the oil sector to continue to grow at the long established rates.

• OSTI ID: 6894355
• Journal Information: Drilling Contract.; (United States), Journal Name: Drilling Contract.; (United States) Vol. 30:1; ISSN DRCOA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020100* -- Petroleum-- Reserves-- (-1989)
ARCTIC OCEAN
ATLANTIC OCEAN
BAYS
BEAUFORT SEA
DEMAND
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
NORTH SEA
PETROLEUM
PRODUCTIVITY
PRUDHOE BAY
RESERVES
RESOURCE ASSESSMENT
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SEAS
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
SURFACE WATERS