Annual Energy Outlook 1983 with projections to 1995

Technical Report · Tue May 01 00:00:00 EDT 1984

OSTI ID:6883274

Yearly projections through 1995 of the consumption and supply of energy by fuel and end-use sector are provided for members of Congress, the Administration, and the public. Despite 3 years of conflict by two countries that control roughly 15 percent of OPEC production capacity, the current outlook is for slight declines in the average world price for oil for the next 2 to 3 years, and then for a gradual rise in the real price of oil to about the levels of 1980 by the early 1990's. Higher growth in oil demand or slower expansion of oil production capacity could produce higher oil prices, while greater conservation and increased competition among oil producers could result in lower prices. This more optimistic outlook for oil prices has been adopted because the expected recovery of world economic growth has not been sufficient to offset other factors that hold down demand for oil. Both Europe and the United States have had the blessing of two mixed but essentially warm winters that moderated usual seasonal peaks in oil demand and kept markets slack. Moreover, conservation continues to moderate the total demand for energy, particularly petroleum, as efficiency of use continues to increase in response to the past 10 years of higher energy prices. It now appears far less likely than it did last year that the gas industry will be faced with a massive loss of market in the 1980's. It appears that the natural gas tariff structure is being modified to retain large industrial and utility customers that are readily able to switch fuels. Thus, this year's wellhead gas price forecast shows only very slight increases until the price of fuel oil increases in the late 1980's. The rapid increase in gas prices upon partial decontrol in 1985 is no longer expected. Finally, it appears that the trend to electrification will continue, although only at about half the rate of the early 1970's. 43 figures, 37 tables. (DMC)

• Research Organization: USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC. Office of Energy Markets and End Use
• OSTI ID: 6883274
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0383(83); ON: DE84012161
• Resource Relation: Other Information: Portions are illegible in microfiche products
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
FORECASTING
SECTORAL ANALYSIS
ENERGY SUPPLIES
USA
COAL
DATA COMPILATION
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY ANALYSIS
IMPORTS
NATURAL GAS
PETROLEUM
PRICES
THEORETICAL DATA
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
DATA
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
INFORMATION
MATERIALS
NORTH AMERICA
NUMERICAL DATA
POWER
292000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
298000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Consumption & Utilization