A comparative risk assessment technique for tanker oil spills

Conference · Mon Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1979 · Am. Pet. Inst., Publ.; (United States)

OSTI ID:6852577

Oezhaynak, H ^[1]; Murphy, B L; Watson, J J

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1. Environ. Res. and Technol. Inc.

The tanker oil spill risk assessment model (TRAM) allows a user to investigate the way in which oil spill probabilities and amounts spilled vary with such factors as fleet composition, navigational aids, or particular properties of the route. TRAM operates through multiplication of a series of matrixes: P, Q, R, and S. The rows and columns of all matrixes are parameterized by accident type (such as collision or grounding) and location (such as at a pier or in a harbor). The probability of an accident (P) and of a spill following an accident (Q) are based on world tanker fleet data. The matrix S expresses the conditional probability that if there is a spill, the vessel will be a total loss. This enables catastrophic spills, in which spill size can be related to vessel size, to be distinguished from minor spills, in which vessel size is generally not a factor. The matrix R contains most of the unique features of the model. It accounts for vessel and route-specific features that reasonably may be expected to alter the world tanker fleet data, e.g., fleet composition and vessel age. The practical use of the model was demonstrated by applying it to a hypothetical project involving the transportation of 500,000 bbl/day of oil by tanker.

• OSTI ID: 6852577
• Report Number(s): CONF-7903164-
• Conference Information: Journal Name: Am. Pet. Inst., Publ.; (United States) Journal Volume: 4308
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290300* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Environment
Health
& Safety
ACCIDENTS
MARITIME TRANSPORT
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MATRICES
NAVIGATIONAL INSTRUMENTS
OIL SPILLS
RISK ASSESSMENT
SHIPS
TANKER SHIPS
TRANSPORT
USES