West coast oil spills. a probability analysis keyed to southern California

Conference · Mon Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1979 · Am. Pet. Inst., Publ.; (United States)

OSTI ID:6802029

Bright, D B

A probability analysis keyed to southern California, based on world tanker data, showed there is a potential for 4.4 accidents per 1000 voyages. However, using the actual number of casualty-caused oil spills from tankers along the southern California coast, it is possible to predict zero spills. World-wide data for oil spill sizes and world-wide casualty rates for coastal waters suggest that a spill of 60,000 bbl somewhere in San Pedro Bay could occur once every 1000 yr. Over a projected 40 yr period, the probability of such a spill is about 1 in 25. Similarly, a 60,000 bbl spill in coastal waters might be expected once every 500 yr. Northern and southern California have distinctly different ship traffic patterns. In the south, there is a decreasing frequency of occurrence of spills related to traffic volumes; in the north, no such pattern is evident. The potential for numerous tanker collisions and subsequent loss of oil along the west coast is very, very low. Anticipated energy projects will not result in a major change in this potential. The concern for major tanker accidents and related oil spills on the west coast is not supported by existing data or predictions based on such data.

• Research Organization: Environ. Feasibility Stud.
• OSTI ID: 6802029
• Report Number(s): CONF-7903164-
• Conference Information: Journal Name: Am. Pet. Inst., Publ.; (United States) Journal Volume: 4308
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020900* -- Petroleum-- Environmental Aspects
520200 -- Environment
Aquatic-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
FORECASTING
INDUSTRY
MARITIME TRANSPORT
OIL SPILLS
PETROLEUM INDUSTRY
POLLUTION ABATEMENT
SHIPS
TANKER SHIPS
TRANSPORT
WATER POLLUTION ABATEMENT