Future of OPEC: price level and cartel stability

Journal Article · Sat Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1983 · Energy J.; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No1-4· OSTI ID:6842069

Daly, G; Griffin, J M; Steele, H B

In contrast to the unanimity of the 10 world oil models in projecting permanent high prices, the findings outlined in this paper suggest that the 1978-79 OPEC price hikes may have defined the limits of OPEC's monoply power. A long-run real-price path significantly greater that $32 per barrel seems likely to bring forth large supplies of conventional fuels, coupled with substantial conservation efforts. These forces, together with increased supplies of non-OPEC oil, render the sustaining of higher real prices unlikely without major institutional adaptations within OPEC. The critical variables in determining OPEC's future are our supply-side assumptions about the technical, financial, and behavioral factors of the non-OPEC response and the demand-side assumptions about supply and economic growth elasticities. 11 references, 2 tables.

• Research Organization: Univ. of Houston, TX
• OSTI ID: 6842069
• Journal Information: Energy J.; (United States), Journal Name: Energy J.; (United States) Vol. 4:1; ISSN ENJOD
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

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ECONOMICS
ENERGY SOURCES
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
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OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OPEC
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PRICES
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