Higher oil prices: Can OPEC raise prices by cutting production

Thesis/Dissertation · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1988

OSTI ID:5738291

Kaufmann, R K

OPEC's ability to raise prices is evaluated with a model that projects the supply and demand. As part of the model, a new methodology to forecast for the rate of production by non-OPEC nations is developed. A literature review of techniques for estimating oil supply and annual rates of production indicates a new methodology is needed. The new technique incorporates the geological, engineering, and economic aspects of the oil industry by synthesizing curve fitting and econometric techniques. It is used to analyze data for eight regions for non-OPEC oil production: the lower 48 states, Alaska, Canada, Mexico, non-OPEC South America, Western Europe, non-OPEC Africa, and non-OPEC Asia. OPEC's ability to raise prices is examined by tracking the percentage oil US oil demand supplied by imports, the portion of oil demand in Western Europe supplied by local production, the percentage of WOCA oil demand supplied by OPEC and Real OPEC revenues. Results of the model indicate that OPEC can raise oil prices in the early 1990s. OPEC can raise and sustain oil prices near $25 (1982 dollars). Higher oil prices ($35) are not sustainable before 2000 because reduced demand and increased non-OPEC production shrink OPEC revenues below acceptable levels. After 2000, $35 prices are sustainable.

• Research Organization: Pennsylvania Univ., Philadelphia, PA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5738291
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
294002* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ENERGY SOURCES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OPEC
PETROLEUM
PRICES
PRODUCTION
SUPPLY AND DEMAND