New measure of sensitivity for social system simulation models

Journal Article · Thu Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1979 · IEEE Trans. Syst., Man, Cybern.; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/TSMC.1979.4310166· OSTI ID:6815644

Ford, A ^[1]; Gardiner, P C

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1. Los Alamos Scientific Lab., NM

A new measure of sensitivity of dynamic simulation models of complex social systems is introduced. The measure helps investigators deal with three of the four principal obstacles that have made systematic sensitivity testing so difficult in the past. To conduct sensitivity analyses with the new measure, the investigator must combine the simulation model under study with an evaluation model designed to generate an overall scalar value to each output pattern of the simulation model. Moreover, the investigator must state precisely the policy issue under dispute. The use of the new measure is illustrated with an examination of the sensitivity of a dynamic simulation model of energy boom towns. The case study employs multiattribute utility measurement models developed for local planners in an energy boom town in New Mexico. Use of the new measure shows the boom-town simulation model to be surprisingly insensitive to changes in key input parameters. 11 figures, 2 tables.

• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-36
• OSTI ID: 6815644
• Journal Information: IEEE Trans. Syst., Man, Cybern.; (United States), Journal Name: IEEE Trans. Syst., Man, Cybern.; (United States) Vol. SMC-9:3; ISSN ISYMA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
990200 -- Mathematics & Computers
BOOM TOWNS
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
PLANNING
POPULATION DYNAMICS
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
SIMULATION
SOCIAL IMPACT
SOCIAL SERVICES
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS