Adaptive filtering and prediction of the Southern Oscillation index
Journal Article
·
· Journal of Geophysical Research; (United States)
- Univ. of California, Los Angeles (United States) California Inst. of Technology, Pasadena (United States)
- Univ. of California, Los Angeles (United States)
Singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a variant of principal component analysis, is applied to a time series of the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The analysis filters out variability unrelated to the Southern Oscillation and separates the high-frequency, 2- to 3-year variability, including the quasi-biennial oscillation, from the lower-frequency 4- to 6-year El Nino cycle. The maximum entropy method (MEM) is applied to forecasting the prefiltered SOI. Prediction based on MEM-associated autoregressive models has useful skill for 30-36 months. A 1993-1994 La Nina event is predicted based on data through February 1992. 52 refs., 4 figs.
- OSTI ID:
- 6755320
- Journal Information:
- Journal of Geophysical Research; (United States), Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research; (United States) Vol. 97:D18; ISSN JGREA2; ISSN 0148-0227
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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