Statistical analysis of the All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall Series and some external forcings

Conference · Tue Dec 31 04:00:00 EST 1996

OSTI ID:470981

Schaefer, D; Domroes, M ^[1]

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1. Mainz Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Geography

This paper discusses the All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall Series (AISMRS) for the period 1813--1994 using univariate statistical methods, such as testing of homogeneity, trend analysis and spectral analysis, and investigating the external forcings which influence the monsoon rainfall in India applying a Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLR) and by filtering with the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). The following forcings for the period 1870--1994 are investigated: 1. Greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide equivalents); 2. Tropospheric sulfat; 3. ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation Index); 4. Solar radiation; 5. Volcanic explosivity index. The year-to-year variability of AISMRS shows no significant linear or non-linear trend over the whole period of observation. Between 1899--1920 and the years after 1964, however, a higher frequency of dry years occurred while between 1930--1964 a lower frequency of dry years was experienced. Applying spectral analysis some periods had been computed which are related to the teleconnections ENSO and the Quasi Biennial Oscillations (QBO); the 11 year period of the sunspot cycle is present in the AISMRS.

• OSTI ID: 470981
• Report Number(s): CONF-960420--; ISBN 0-884736-02-5
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
GREENHOUSE GASES
HISTORICAL ASPECTS
INDIA
MONSOONS
RAIN
REGRESSION ANALYSIS