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Selecting a peak-demand-forecast methodology

Journal Article · · Public Util. Fortn.; (United States)
OSTI ID:6710141
Several methods of forecasting peak demand are described to assist electric utilities in choosing an appropriate modeling system, one that combines the flexibility to incorporate new developments, statistical validity to accurately replicate the past, and flexibility. Modeling methodologies include direct and single-component indirect econometric models, multicomponent indirect models, and a disaggregated physical end use model. An evaluation of these four types concludes that the limitations of the pure econometric and the physical models will increase the popularity of multicomponent indirect models, which are aggregated to project average hourly load by customer class.
Research Organization:
Arthur D. Little, Cambridge, MA
OSTI ID:
6710141
Journal Information:
Public Util. Fortn.; (United States), Journal Name: Public Util. Fortn.; (United States) Vol. 101:13; ISSN PUFNA
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English