The Hanford Site New Production Reactor (NPR) economic and demographic baseline forecasts

Technical Report · Wed Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 1990

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/6654776· OSTI ID:6654776

Cluett, C; Clark, D C ^[1]; Pittenger, D B ^[2]

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1. Battelle Human Affairs Research Center, Seattle, WA (USA)
2. Demographics Lab., Olympia, WA (USA)

The objective of this is to present baseline employment and population forecasts for Benton, Franklin, and Yakima Counties. These forecasts will be used in the socioeconomic analysis portion of the New Production Reactor Environmental Impact Statement. Aggregate population figures for the three counties in the study area were developed for high- and low-growth scenarios for the study period 1990 through 2040. Age-sex distributions for the three counties during the study period are also presented. The high and low scenarios were developed using high and low employment projections for the Hanford site. Hanford site employment figures were used as input for the HARC-REMI Economic and Demographic (HED) model to produced baseline employment forecasts for the three counties. These results, in turn, provided input to an integrated three-county demographic model. This model, a fairly standard cohort-component model, formalizes the relationship between employment and migration by using migration to equilibrate differences in labor supply and demand. In the resulting population estimates, age-sex distributions for 1981 show the relatively large work force age groups in Benton County while Yakima County reflects higher proportions of the population in the retirement ages. The 2040 forecasts for all three counties reflect the age effects of relatively constant and low fertility increased longevity, as well as the cumulative effects of the migration assumptions in the model. By 2040 the baby boom population will be 75 years and older, contributing to the higher proportion of population in the upper end age group. The low scenario age composition effects are similar. 13 refs., 5 figs., 9 tabs.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)
• Sponsoring Organization: DOE/DP
• DOE Contract Number: AC06-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 6654776
• Report Number(s): PNL-7434; ON: DE90016195
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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DEMOGRAPHY
EMPLOYMENT
FEDERAL REGION X
FERTILITY
FORECASTING
HANFORD RESERVATION
HAPO
HUMAN POPULATIONS
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
LABOR
MORTALITY
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NORTH AMERICA
POPULATION DYNAMICS
POPULATION RELOCATION
POPULATIONS
PRODUCTION REACTORS
REACTORS
SITE CHARACTERIZATION
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
US AEC
US DOE
US ERDA
US ORGANIZATIONS
USA
WASHINGTON