Testing the spatial neutrality of the REMI net migration equation

Conference · Sat Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1994

OSTI ID:60787

Barr, C F; Perrigo, T A ^[1]; Daneshvary, N ^[2]; Rickman, D S ^[3]

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1. Science Applications International Corp., Las Vegas, NV (United States)
2. Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States)
3. Georgia Southern Univ., Statesboro, GA (United States)

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project Office (YMPO) is conducting socioeconomic studies in the State of Nevada in accordance with the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended. The main purpose of the socioeconomic program is to avoid or minimize adverse socioeconomic impacts of the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) on local communities, counties, and the state of Nevada. This objective is being met by collecting data that can be used by the DOE and affected units of local government to monitor economic and demographic variables and forecast changes that may occur as a direct result of the YMP. One of the tools being used to develop population and employment forecasts in Clark, Lincoln, and Nye counties in Nevada is Regional Economic Modeling Inc.`s (REMI) Economic-Demographic Forecasting and Simulation (EDFS) model. The REMI model is widely used in applied economics for: forecasting and planning; economic development; transportation; energy and natural resources; taxation, budget, and welfare; United States policies; and environmental policies. This model was chosen by the DOE because it is a dynamic econometric model based on accepted economic theory and principles, and because of its favorable rating compared to other available models. The dynamic nature of the model offers improvements in forecasting capabilities over input-output models. Because the DOE is making extensive use of the REMI model, it is necessary to evaluate the model`s forecasting performance. This study is an empirical test of the restrictions in the REMI model`s net migration equation. The REMI model pools the data across regions to estimate net migration into each region. For this study we will examine Clark County net migration. We hypothesize that due to the differences among regions (such as distance, and geographic and cultural features specific to each region), pooling the data across regions may not be appropriate.

• Research Organization: American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, NY (United States); American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park, IL (United States)
• OSTI ID: 60787
• Report Number(s): CONF-940553--Vol.1
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

05 NUCLEAR FUELS
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
ACCURACY
COMMUNITIES
FORECASTING
RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL
SITE CHARACTERIZATION
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
STATISTICAL MODELS
YUCCA MOUNTAIN
Yucca Mountain Project