Estimation of final demands and current input--output coefficients to 1985

Technical Report · Fri Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 1975

OSTI ID:6648578

Behling, Jr, D J; Dennehy, G

As part of several energy policy studies being carried out by the Energy Analysis Group at Brookhaven National Laboratory, estimates of input-output final demands and technological coefficients are required for the preparation of base case reference forecasts. These estimates and the methodology used in making them are presented. The methodology used in estimating the final demands relates all the detailed final demand estimates to a single GNP estimate, so that as GNP forecasts change, corresponding changes in final demands can easily be estimated. After an extensive comparison of recent 1985 estimates of GNP, the 1985 GNP is forecasted to increase at an average annual rate of 4.25% between 1975 and 1985. This forecast is based on an assumption that both labor productivity and per capita GNP will increase at rates lower than the post-World War II average trend but greater than the recent post-1968 trends. Energy sector final demands to 1985 were estimated in physical units, and in terms of both fuels (e.g., oil, gas and electricity) and functional end uses (e.g., space heat and water heat). In general, aggregate energy final demand is forecasted to increase at a slower rate than GNP. The estimated 1985 forecasts of individual energy end uses are listed. The technological coefficient forecast trends for non-energy inputs were estimated on the basis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts to 1985, while the functional energy input coefficients (e.g., process heat per unit of output) are based on historical 1967 estimates.

• Research Organization: Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: EY-76-C-02-0016
• OSTI ID: 6648578
• Report Number(s): BNL-20369
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMICS
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY POLICY
FORECASTING
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
INDUSTRY
INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS
NORTH AMERICA
USA