U. S. energy and economic growth, 1975--2010

Technical Report · Wed Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 1976

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5339787· OSTI ID:5339787

Allen, E L; Cooper, C L; Edmonds, F C; Edmonds, J A; Reister, D B; Weinberg, A M; Whittle, C E; Zelby, L W

This study projects economic growth (GNP) and energy demand for the U.S. to the year 2010. The main finding is that both GNP and total energy demand are likely to grow significantly more slowly than has been assumed in most analyses of energy policy. Projections of energy, GNP, and electricity (total and per capita) are summarized, with electricity demand expected to grow more rapidly than total energy demand. Two scenarios designated ''high'' and ''low'' were developed in this study. However, even the ''high'' scenario, 126 quads (q; 1 q equals 10/sup 15/ Btu) in 2000, is much lower than most previous estimates. It is felt that this raises serious questions about fundamental energy and energy R and D policies which, generally, have been based on perceptions of more lavish energy futures. Although the aggregate demands and GNP are projected to increase rather modestly, the energy demands per capita and GNP per capita increase at rates comparable to or even higher than historic rates. The authors believe that the projections developed in this study represent a logical culmination of many trends toward lower growth. These trends have not yet been factored into the older energy projections upon which so much energy policy is based. 136 references.

• Research Organization: Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge, Tenn. (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: EY-76-C-05-0033
• OSTI ID: 5339787
• Report Number(s): ORAU/IEA-76-7
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC POLICY
ECONOMICS
EFFICIENCY
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
ENERGY POLICY
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
NORTH AMERICA
POWER
USA