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U.S. Department of Energy
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Arms races and the international system

Thesis/Dissertation ·
OSTI ID:6621663
The hypothesis that arms racing leads to war is examined in detail. A theoretical model of arms racing behavior is elaborated. The basic premise is that a nation's military expenditures are a function of specific external threats and the opportunity costs that arms expenditures represent. The model shows that the link between arms racing and war reduces to a probabilistic one as racing is neither a sufficient or a necessary condition for war. Furthermore, the model demonstrates that there are several different kinds of arms races and the spending patterns can vary with each type of race. An empirical measure of arms racing that meets the requirements of the theoretical model is developed. The test of the hypothesis produces only a moderate link between arms racing and war, and indicates that racing slightly increases the likelihood of war.
Research Organization:
Rochester Univ., NY (USA)
OSTI ID:
6621663
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English