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Arms control agreements: A quantitative analysis

Thesis/Dissertation ·
OSTI ID:5503192
The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the understanding of the arms control phenomenon by examining in a rigorous, quantitative manner the military and political environment surrounding the introduction of the treaties in the period 1816-1987. The thesis uses formal statistical analysis to examine military and enmity developments preceding and following arms control agreements. Differences are uncovered in the pattern of military spending and international conflict across two broadly defined types of treaties: (1) treaties that prepare for war by establishing humanitarian rules for its conduct; and (2) treaties that aim at promoting peace by controlling the level and quality of armaments. The main empirical findings include: peace' treaties tend to be introduced in periods of low military spending relative to war' treaties; military spending experiences a decrease (increase) in the short run before a peace' ( war') treaty. While both types of treaties seem effective in restraining military expenditures in the short run (three years) after the treaty, these gains are short lived with reversal to a pattern of military buildups in the longer run. Similarly, peace' treaties tend to both follow and be followed by low levels of international tensions (as reflected in serious disputes) relative to war' treaties.
Research Organization:
Rochester Univ., NY (United States)
OSTI ID:
5503192
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English