Data and methodological problems in establishing state gasoline-conservation targets
The Emergency Energy Conservation Act of 1979 gives the President the authority to set gasoline-conservation targets for states in the event of a supply shortage. This paper examines data and methodological problems associated with setting state gasoline-conservation targets. The target-setting method currently used is examined and found to have some flaws. Ways of correcting these deficiencies through the use of Box-Jenkins time-series analysis are investigated. A successful estimation of Box-Jenkins models for all states included the estimation of the magnitude of the supply shortages of 1979 in each state and a preliminary estimation of state short-run price elasticities, which were found to vary about a median value of -0.16. The time-series models identified were very simple in structure and lent support to the simple consumption growth model assumed by the current target method. The authors conclude that the flaws in the current method can be remedied either by replacing the current procedures with time-series models or by using the models in conjunction with minor modifications of the current method.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-26
- OSTI ID:
- 6619016
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-810111-2
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Annual meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, USA, 12 Jan 1981
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
POLICY AND ECONOMY
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
ENERGY CONSERVATION
TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS
GASOLINE
CONSUMPTION RATES
ECONOMIC ELASTICITY
USA
DATA
ENERGY SHORTAGES
IMPLEMENTATION
STATE GOVERNMENT
FUELS
INFORMATION
LIQUID FUELS
MATHEMATICS
NORTH AMERICA
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
SHORTAGES
291000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Conservation
290100 - Energy Planning & Policy- Energy Analysis & Modeling
320200 - Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization- Transportation