Control theoretic model of automobile demand and gasoline consumption

Thesis/Dissertation · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1982

OSTI ID:5711441

Panerali, R B

The purpose of this research is to examine the controllability of gasoline consumption and automobile demand using gasoline price as a policy instrument. The author examines the problem of replacing the standby motor-fuel rationing plan with use of the federal excise tax on gasoline. It is demonstrated that the standby targets are attainable with the tax. The problem of multiple control of automobile demand and gasoline consumption is also addressed. When the federal gasoline excise tax is used to control gasoline consumption, the policy maker can also use the tax to direct automobile demand. There exists a trade-off between various automobile demand targets and the target implied for gasoline consumption. We seek to measure this trade-off and use the results for planning. This research employs a time series of cross section data base with a disaggregated model of automobile demand, and an aggregate model of gasoline consumption. Automobile demand is divided into five mutually exclusive classes of cars. Gasoline demand is model as the sum of regular, premium, and unleaded gasoline. The pooled data base is comprised of a quarterly time series running from 1963 quarter one through 1979 quarter four, for each of the 48 continuous states. The demand equations are modelled using dynamic theories of demand. Estimates of the respective equations are made with error components and covariance techniques. Optimal control is applied to examine the gasoline-control problem.

• OSTI ID: 5711441
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
298000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Consumption & Utilization
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320203* -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Transportation-- Land & Roadway
AUTOMOBILES
CONSUMPTION RATES
CONTROL
DEMAND FACTORS
FUELS
GASOLINE
LIQUID FUELS
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
VEHICLES