Formalisms for handling phenomenological uncertainties: The concepts of probability, frequency, variability and probability of frequency

Journal Article · Thu Apr 01 04:00:00 EST 1993 · Nuclear Technology; (United States)

OSTI ID:6480115

Kaplan, S ^[1]

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1. PLG, Newport Beach, CA (United States)

This paper is inspired by the recent work of Theofanous et al. on the risk of liner failure in Mark-I containments. In that work, the authors presented a probabilistic framework and methodology for dealing with uncertainties surrounding Level 2,' i.e., post-core-melt phenomena in nuclear plants. In so doing, they have advanced the state of the art of risk assessment and decision making in regard to such phenomena. The key ideas in this framework and methodology have application, of course, beyond Level 2 phenomena. The purposes of the present paper are to abstract and lift out these key ideas so that they can be seen more clearly and to place them in context along with similar ideas used elsewhere, particularly in seismic risk assessment and in the treatment of through-wall cracking and pressurized thermal shock transients. The author hopes, in this way, to clear up confusion and to advance the cause of consistency in the use of the words probability,' uncertainty,' frequency,' variability,' randomness,' etc.

• OSTI ID: 6480115
• Journal Information: Nuclear Technology; (United States), Journal Name: Nuclear Technology; (United States) Vol. 102:1; ISSN 0029-5450; ISSN NUTYBB
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS
220200 -- Nuclear Reactor Technology-- Components & Accessories
220900* -- Nuclear Reactor Technology-- Reactor Safety
ACCIDENTS
CONTAINERS
CRACKS
DECISION MAKING
FAILURES
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
POWER PLANTS
PROBABILITY
REACTOR ACCIDENTS
REACTOR SAFETY
REACTOR VESSELS
RISK ASSESSMENT
SAFETY
THERMAL POWER PLANTS
TRANSIENTS