Prospects for future world coal trade. [1980-2000]
In this report, the US participation in future world steam coal trade, during the 1985 to 2000 period, is analyzed using low-, mid-, and high-demand scenarios. Since the United States, historically, has been a major supplier of metallurgical coal, the structure of the metallurgical coal market is discussed. However, projections for metallurgical coal trade flows are not given, since world demand for metallurgical coal is not expected to grow significantly from current levels. This report discusses the structural and behavioral relationships governing supply and demand. Total US metallurgical and steam coal exports reached a record level of 113 million short tons in 1981, compared with 92 million short tons in 1980. Steam coal exports, which amounted to 45 million short tons in 1981 compared with 27 million short tons in 1980, accounted for almost all of the increase in total exports. The steam coal export projections for the period 1985 to 2000 show that the United States will continue to have a major role in world steam coal trade. Australia, South Africa, and Poland will continue to be the other major steam coal exporters. Potential interdependence in world steam coal trade among producers and consumers is discussed. The importance attached by coal importers to the diversification of their coal supplies reflects each country's overall dependence on foreign energy sources and coal's contribution to each country's sectorial energy requirements.Coal exporters, on the other hand, will seek assurance that future productive capacity will be in line with expectations of future steam coal demand. Growth in coal production may be constrained by a number of factors. Uncertainty about steam coal demand due to recession in the major importing regions, labor and political unrest in the exporting nations, as well as fluctuations in the terms of trade for alternate energy sources, will affect the future outlook for steam coal trade.
- Research Organization:
- USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC. Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels
- OSTI ID:
- 6474257
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/EIA-0363; ON: DE83008807
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
World coal trade in 1980. [1970; 1976 to 1980; exports or imports by country]
Revised market guide for coal exports from the United States
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CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
COAL INDUSTRY
ENERGY SOURCES
EXPORTS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
INDUSTRY
MATERIALS
NORTH AMERICA
STEAM GENERATION
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
TRADE
USA