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U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Annual prospects for world coal trade 1985: with projections to 1995

Technical Report ·
OSTI ID:5744120

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects US and world coal trade to 1995, and annually updates the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook. The current projections assume that world coal trade will expand between now and 1995 in response to increasing demand for steam coal. US coal exports rose rapidly between 1979 and 1981, from 66 million short tons to 113 million short tons, partly as a result of labor problems in Poland and Australia. After declining slightly to 106 million short tons in 1982, US coal exports decreased sharply to 78 million short tons in 1983 due to increased supplies of Polish coal in Western Europe and Australian coal in Asia. Moreover, the continued strength of the US dollar made US coal more expensive overseas. US coal exports rose slightly in 1984, to 81 million short tons. Exports of US coal in 1985 are projected to be approximately 71 million short tons. As a high-cost supplier of export coal, the United States has been the ''swing supplier'' because of its ability to ship large amounts of coal on short notice. The United States is likely to maintain a significant share of the world market as a reliable supplier of high-quality coal. EIA projections of US coal exports and world coal trade for 1990 and 1995 are provided in a mid-demand (or base) case as well as in two other cases, a low-demand case and a high-demand case, that reflect uncertainties in the projections. EIA estimates of import coal demand for 1990 and 1995 were developed using key energy supply and demand information for the principal coal-importing countries in Western Europe and Asia, and evaluating that information in the context of estimated trends in economic growth and energy use. 3 figs., 26 tabs.

Research Organization:
USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC. Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels
OSTI ID:
5744120
Report Number(s):
DOE/EIA-0363(85); ON: DE85011524
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English