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Years that the locust hath eaten: oil policy and OPEC development prospects

Journal Article · · Foreign Aff.; (United States)
DOI:https://doi.org/10.2307/20040115· OSTI ID:6469299

Events since the 1973 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil embargo are analyzed in the context of the energy--oil balance, inflation and the declining value of the U.S. dollar, and the use of surplus dollars by the oil-producing countries for national development. Although demand rates for oil have declined since 1974 while supplies have expanded with discoveries in th North Sea and Alaska, a net increase in consumption and an anticipated decline in new discoveries is projected to create a supply gap by 1985 of four to 12 million barrels per day. This would cause competitive price bidding and political action among th oil-importing countries. The recent fall of real prices of oil has allowed the U.S. to avoid crippling inflation and recession, but the real price can be expected to rise rapidly and strain financial adjustment. Economic development plans within the OPEC countries may be re-evaluated in light of the true potential for future industrial revenues to replace oil revenues and of the pressure to improve the economic condition of citizens. Many countries may elect to slow oil production and increase prices. Energy policy in the oil-importing countries needs to be prudent about assessing future availability of oil and should risk paying additional costs for early replacement by other energy sources. Candid discussions with the OPEC countries to coordinate goals could reduce wasteful consumption by oil users and wasteful spending by oil producers.

OSTI ID:
6469299
Journal Information:
Foreign Aff.; (United States), Journal Name: Foreign Aff.; (United States) Vol. 57:2; ISSN FRNAA
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English