End to OPEC

Journal Article · · Foreign Policy; (United States)

OSTI ID:5814206

Singer, S F

Two oil experts present their views on the future relationship of the US and OPEC. S. Fred Singer sees no real structural change in the world oil market and no substantial threat from an Arab embargo other than inconvenience and cost. Higher prices have triggered new exploration and production enough to create a temporary glut, which OPEC met by reducing production rather than prices. If oil users believe high prices will continue, OPEC markets may shift to alternative energy investment and import quotas. Countries lacking investment capital will then benefit from a reduction in OPEC oil prices. If these investments are not made, oil prices will remain high. Stephen Stamas predicts that supply and price pressures will reassert themselves as OPEC continues to be the major non-communist oil source. As OPEC production fell with price-induced demand curtailment, the oil-market psychology also changed. The current surplus will most likely shrink, forcing the US to acknowledge that there is no viable oil substitute available for transportation, that new discoveries are not keeping pace with consumption increases, that consuming countries will continue to depend on OPEC, and that there is little hope of political stability in the Middle East. Recent adjustments by consuming countries are encouraging, but they must keep energy as a top priority or risk a return to the pressures of the 1970s. (DCK)

• Research Organization: Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville
• OSTI ID: 5814206
• Journal Information: Foreign Policy; (United States), Journal Name: Foreign Policy; (United States) Vol. 45; ISSN FRPLA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700 -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
293000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Policy
Legislation
& Regulation
294002* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ENERGY POLICY
ENERGY SUPPLIES
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
MARKET
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OIL-IMPORTING COUNTRIES
OPEC
PRICES
SUPPLY AND DEMAND