Price forecasting system for refined petroleum products
Technical Report
·
OSTI ID:6444726
A fixed comprehensive model of petroleum products market is presented. An overview of the complete modeling system is presented along with an explanation of each major component of the forecasting system. A demonstration run included in which the 1978 distillate price is about $1.35 per barrel (real 1976 dollars) above the residual price and about $.55 per barrel below the motor gasoline price. In general, the forecasted prices exhibit a stable pattern during the period. A noticeable exception is the 1980 propane price. This result appears to be influenced greatly by a very high level of propane demand forecasted by the DOE demand model. The other exception to this stable pattern is the 1979 price for other refined products. The forecasted demand for this category grows more rapidly than most of the other products. In addition, this group aggregates a number of very different types of products. Thus, a price or marginal cost applying to this category is less meaningful than for other product groups. The forecasted equilibrium demands increase over time for all products except jet fuel, which is determined exogenously. The model also forecasts quarterly prices by Petroleum Administrative District. These prices are in nominal or current dollars per barrel and incorporate both seasonal factors and regional markups. In some regions and years, the prices in the fourth quarter decline from the previous quarter, reflecting the seasonal demand for this product.
- Research Organization:
- Data Resources, Inc., Washington, DC (USA); JRB Associates, Inc., McLean, VA (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 6444726
- Report Number(s):
- TID-28924
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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