Current developments affecting future availability of oil and gas in the free world

Technical Report · Tue Mar 17 04:00:00 EST 1981

OSTI ID:6395163

Borg, I Y

This review focuses on developments during the last 18 months likely to affect the availability of oil and gas in coming decades. These developments include new discoveries (Hibernia, Beaufort Sea, Ivory Coast, the Western and Eastern Overthrust Belts, and the Gulf of Suez). They also include new energy policies of both producer and consumer nations that will ultimately affect supply. New policies and a rapidly increasing domestic demand may stabilize Mexico's exports at their present level, even if production reaches 4 to 5 million barrels per day (b/d). Canada's new policy toward foreign oil companies operating within her borders may well stifle exploration and investment in both oil and tar sand deposits. OPEC contract and pricing schemes are profoundly altering distribution systems and markets. OPEC plans to allocate oil arbitrarily in times of shortage could disrupt the industrial world. Inability to reassign oil contracted for from OPEC nations is forcing buyers to increase storage capacity. The oil inventories reported are not equivalent to availability, since 50 to 90% is essentially unavailable. Thus, stock equivalent to 110 days of imports may include only a few weeks of primary usable stocks. Only Sweden and South Africa have federally owned oil reserves that could meet demand for periods of months or years. Natural gas from the USSR will probably comprise 30% of Western Europe's total supply in the 1990s, if plans to import gas from the Yamal Peninsula come to fruition. Soviet gas is seen as an acceptable alternative to undependable OPEC oil supplies and similarly unreliable gas supplies from North Africa. However, the proposed, increased dependency on the USSR may add a new dimension to Soviet and Western European politics.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48
• OSTI ID: 6395163
• Report Number(s): UCRL-53129
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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AFRICA
ASIA
AVAILABILITY
CANADA
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
EASTERN EUROPE
ENERGY POLICY
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
EUROPE
EXPORTS
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUEL SUPPLIES
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
GLOBAL ASPECTS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
INVENTORIES
LATIN AMERICA
MEXICO
NATURAL GAS
NORTH AMERICA
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OPEC
PETROLEUM
PRICES
RESERVES
RESOURCES
SCANDINAVIA
SOUTH AFRICA
SWEDEN
USSR
WESTERN EUROPE