Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program scenario analysis methods for use in assessing the safety of the geologic isolation of nuclear waste.
The relative utility of the various safety analysis methods to scenario analysis for a repository system was evaluated by judging the degree to which certain criteria are satisfied by use of the method. Six safety analysis methods were reviewed in this report for possible use in scenario analysis of nuclear waste repositories: expert opinion, perspectives analysis, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation, Markov chains, and classical systems analysis. Four criteria have been selected. The criteria suggest that the methods: (1) be quantitative and scientifically based; (2) model the potential disruptive events and processes, (3) model the system before and after failure (sufficiently detailed to provide for subsequent consequence analysis); and (4) be compatible with the level of available system knowledge and data. Expert opinion, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation and classical systems analysis were judged to have the greatest potential appliation to the problem of scenario analysis. The methods were found to be constrained by limited data and by knowledge of the processes governing the system. It was determined that no single method is clearly superior to others when measured against all the criteria. Therefore, to get the best understanding of system behavior, a combination of the methods is recommended. Monte Carlo simulation was judged to be the most suitable matrix in which to incorporate a combination of methods.
- Research Organization:
- Battelle Pacific Northwest Labs., Richland, WA (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- EY-76-C-06-1830
- OSTI ID:
- 6326617
- Report Number(s):
- PNL-2643; TRN: 79-008925
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS
RADIOACTIVE WASTE FACILITIES
SAFETY
EVALUATION
FAILURE MODE ANALYSIS
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS
MARKOV PROCESS
MONTE CARLO METHOD
SIMULATION
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
SYSTEM FAILURE ANALYSIS
052002* - Nuclear Fuels- Waste Disposal & Storage
054000 - Nuclear Fuels- Health & Safety