The mixture of normals approximation technique for equivalent load duration curves

Journal Article · Sun May 01 04:00:00 EDT 1988 · IEEE Trans. Power Syst.; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/59.192886· OSTI ID:6322154

Gross, G; Garapic, N V; McNutt, B

For applications such as capacity expansion planning and screening studies of alternative expansion plans, there is a need for a fast, accurate, reliable and robust method to approximate the equivalent load duration curves (e.l.d.c.'s) for production costing. The concept of equivalent load, which is the sum of the customer load demand and the outage capacity of the generating blocks, plays a key role in probabilistic production costing. This paper describes a newly developed approximation technique based on mixtures of normal distributions. The mixtures of normals approximation (m.o.n.a.) for e.l.d.c.'s proceeds in three steps. First, the system load random variable is approximated by a mixture of normals distribution. Next, the approximation of the outage random variable of a group of one or more units by a mixture of normals distribution is obtained. Finally, these two approximations are combined to derive the m.o.n.a. of each e.l.d.c.

• Research Organization: Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (US)
• OSTI ID: 6322154
• Journal Information: IEEE Trans. Power Syst.; (United States), Journal Name: IEEE Trans. Power Syst.; (United States) Vol. 3:2; ISSN ITPSE
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
990220 -- Computers
Computerized Models
& Computer Programs-- (1987-1989)
ACCOUNTING
ACCURACY
CAPACITY
COMPUTER CALCULATIONS
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
ENERGY ACCOUNTING
ENERGY ANALYSIS
FORECASTING
LOAD ANALYSIS
LOAD MANAGEMENT
MANAGEMENT
OUTAGES
PLANNING
POWER DEMAND
POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS
PRICES
PUBLIC UTILITIES