Modeling the detection rates of fires in nuclear plants: development and application of a methodology for treating imprecise evidence

Journal Article · Sat Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1986 · Risk Anal.; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00193.x· OSTI ID:6308261

Siu, N; Apostolakis, G

A model is developed for the detection time of fires in nuclear power plants, which differentiates between competing modes of detection and between different initial fire severities. Our state-of-knowledge uncertainties in the values of the model parameters are assessed from industry experience using Bayesian methods. Because the available data are sparse, we propose means to interpret imprecise forms of evidence to the develop quantitative information, which can be used in a statistical analysis; the intent is to maximize our use of all available information. Sensitivity analyses are performed to indicate the importance of structural and distributional assumptions made in the study. The methods used to treat imprecise evidence can be applied to a wide variety of problems. The specific equations developed in this analysis are useful in general situations, where the random quantity of interest is the minimum of a set of random variables (e.g., in competing risks models). The computational results indicate that the competing modes formulation can lead to distributions different from those obtained via analytically simpler models, which treat each mode independently of the others.

• Research Organization: Univ. of California, Los Angeles
• OSTI ID: 6308261
• Journal Information: Risk Anal.; (United States), Journal Name: Risk Anal.; (United States) Vol. 6:1; ISSN RIAND
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

054000* -- Nuclear Fuels-- Health & Safety
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS
ACCIDENTS
CALCULATION METHODS
DETECTION
ENGINEERING
FIRES
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
REACTORS
RISK ASSESSMENT
SAFETY ENGINEERING
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS