Imprecise Probability Methods for Weapons UQ
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Building on recent work in uncertainty quanti cation, we examine the use of imprecise probability methods to better characterize expert knowledge and to improve on misleading aspects of Bayesian analysis with informative prior distributions. Quantitative approaches to incorporate uncertainties in weapons certi cation are subject to rigorous external peer review, and in this regard, certain imprecise probability methods are well established in the literature and attractive. These methods are illustrated using experimental data from LANL detonator impact testing.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- OSTI ID:
- 1253554
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR--16-23428
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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