Current U. S. petroleum situation and short-term supply/demand outlook

Technical Report · Fri Jun 01 04:00:00 EDT 1979

OSTI ID:6216007

Nelson, E L; Butler, G D; Dwyer, C; Wagner, S

Total petroleum demand for the last three quarters of 1979 is projected to range from 1.3% below demand in the same period of 1978 to 5.4% above 1978. The demand projections were incorporated into U.S. supply/demand balances where domestic production for the same three quarters is virtually constant at about 10.7 million barrels daily. Increased North Slope crude oil production tends to offset declines in other U.S. producing areas, and natural gas liquids and other domestic supplies are also projected at constant rates. Imports requirements to meet these projected demands vary from an average of about 8.3 million barrels daily in the low-demand case to about 9.1 million in the medium and 9.6 million barrels daily for the high-demand case during the last three quarters of 1979. It appears unlikely that U.S. imports could reach the levels indicated for high or even medium demand. Potential U.S. supply shortfalls indicate that U.S. consumption of petroleum products could not rise above the low end of the projected range without driving petroleum inventories down below generaly accepted target levels to enter the 1979-1980 winter heating season. Preliminary data indicate that U.S. petroleum demand for the first quarter of 1979 appears to have been between the low and medium levels projected by the demand models. Estimated demand during April and May, when allocation of scarce supply appears to have limited the effective demand, falls below the low of the projected range by some 1/2 million barrels daily. Unless world supply conditions change significantly in the coming months, the analysis indicates that the United States may experience continual limitations on imports requiring effective efforts to limit consumption and make maximum use of alternative fuels.

• Research Organization: Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Energy Information Administration
• OSTI ID: 6216007
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0184/5
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

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DATA
DATA COMPILATION
DATA FORMS
DEMAND FACTORS
ENERGY SHORTAGES
ENERGY SOURCES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
INFORMATION
NORTH AMERICA
NUMERICAL DATA
PETROLEUM
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
TABLES
USA