Is there climatic evidence now for carbon dioxide effects

Conference · Tue Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1983

OSTI ID:6194668

MacCracken, M C

This paper describes the status of the search for evidence that the climate is changing due to increasing atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations. Global climate models project that doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will lead to a global warming of 3 +- 1.5/sup 0/C. Over the last one-hundred years, the CO/sub 2/ concentration has risen from perhaps 290 ppmv or below to 340 ppmv. If the climate system were at equilibrium, logarithmic interpolation would suggest that a warming of 0.7 +- 0.35/sup 0/C should have occurred. Analyses of temperature records over this period indicate that some warming has apparently occurred, but it is not yet possible to apportion climate changes over this period with confidence among volcanic, solar, and CO/sub 2/-induced components. Analyses of climatic indicators in addition to atmospheric temperature also do not yet provide either convincing evidence that the projected CO/sub 2/ effects are present or a clear refutation that climate model projections are incorrect.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48
• OSTI ID: 6194668
• Report Number(s): UCRL-88613; CONF-830617-1; ON: DE83009244
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

500200* -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (-1989)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON DIOXIDE
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
CLIMATES
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
VARIATIONS