Carbon dioxide and the 'greenhouse effect': an unresolved problem

Journal Article · Fri Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 1978 · Aware; (United States)

OSTI ID:6631348

Smith, I

The concentration of CO/sub 2/ in the atmosphere had risen to 330 ppmv in 1974 as compared to an assumed value of 290 ppmv from 1870 to 1900. Models predict a doubling of the concentration within the next century due to burning fossil fuel for all energy strategies, assuming that 50% of the CO/sub 2/ emitted actually remains in the atmosphere. Fossil-fuel combustion is not the only cause of the increasing amount of CO/sub 2/ in the atmosphere. In fact the contributions of CO/sub 2/ in the atmosphere from deforestation and other land modifications are estimated to be half or up to twice the amount due to fossil-fuel combustion. The effect of doubling the concentration of atmospheric CO/sub 2/ will be to reduce the net global heat loss, but the extent to which the earth's surface will be warmed as a result is still a matter for conjecture. At present concentrations, no global temperature rise has been detected above the noise level of natural variations. The most reliable estimates of temperature rise for a doubling of the concentration are 2/sup 0/C in the tropics and 10/sup 0/C at the poles, with an uncertainty factor of at least two either way. Four thousand to 8000 years ago, when the world was several degrees warmer than at present, the climate was more favorable to some areas than it is now. The question of a rise in sea level is equally unresolved. At present the only confirmed fact is that the concentration of CO/sub 2/ in the atmosphere is increasing. There is little evidence to support either a complacent or an alarmist attitude, so that it is most desirable that various aspects of the CO/sub 2/ cycle should be monitored to reduce uncertainties and give a firmer basis for energy policy during the next decade.

• OSTI ID: 6631348
• Journal Information: Aware; (United States), Journal Name: Aware; (United States) Vol. 96; ISSN AWAEB
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290300* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Environment
Health
& Safety
294000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Fossil Fuels
AIR POLLUTION
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON DIOXIDE
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
COASTAL REGIONS
CONCENTRATION RATIO
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
EARTH PLANET
ENERGY LOSSES
ENERGY POLICY
EVALUATION
FORECASTING
FORESTS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
HEAT LOSSES
IMPLEMENTATION
LOSSES
NOISE
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
PLANETS
POLLUTION
QUANTITY RATIO
RADIATIONS
SHORES
SOLAR RADIATION
TEMPERATURE DEPENDENCE
TEMPERATURE EFFECTS
TEMPERATURE NOISE