Coastal erosion's influencing factors include development, dams, wells, and climate change

Journal Article · · Oceanus; (United States)

OSTI ID:6185254

Aubrey, D G

The demographic flight to the coast, begun in early civilization, continues unabated worldwide according to latest studies. The percentage of population living on the coast is expected to remain relatively constant over the next few decades, but the total numbers will increase as the population increases. Recent coastal battering by hurricanes and extratropical storms poses questions about coastal habitability and the real economics of coastal development. Repair costs are borne by private individuals as well as the public in various direct and indirect ways. As these costs escalate, it is fitting to ask what the future portends for storm and coastal-flood damage. It is known that development pressures will continue to increase along the coast, but what will happen concurrently to natural-hazard threats to this infrastructure Though much emphasis has been placed on sea-level rise, the broader issue is climate change in general. Here, the author considers climate change in both its natural and anthropogenic perspectives. Without becoming mired in the debate about the greenhouse effect and human influence on climatic shifts, some of the broad classes of natural hazards that might accompany climate change are examined. There are several categories of possible global-change effects on coastal erosion. In the early 1980's, an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report postulated increases in global sea level up to 4 meters during the next 100 years. Though balanced somewhat by other, lower estimates of sea-level rise, this higher extreme grabbed public attention. During the next decade, scientists attempted to concur on a more reasonable estimate of global sea-level rise due to climate change. Recent credible estimates suggest that approximately 10 to 20 percent of EPA's earlier maximum estimate is most reasonable.

• OSTI ID: 6185254
• Journal Information: Oceanus; (United States), Journal Name: Oceanus; (United States) Vol. 36:2; ISSN 0029-8182; ISSN OCEAAK
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290301 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Environment
Health
& Safety-- Regional & Global Environmental Aspects-- (1992-)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540310* -- Environment
Aquatic-- Basic Studies-- (1990-)
CLIMATIC CHANGE
COASTAL REGIONS
COASTAL WATERS
DISASTERS
EROSION
FLOODS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
LEVELS
SEA LEVEL
SURFACE WATERS
VARIATIONS