Demographic responses to sea level rise in California

Conference · Tue Dec 31 04:00:00 EST 1996

OSTI ID:470980

Constable, A ^[1]; Van Arsdol, Jr, M D; Sherman, D J; Wang, J; McMullin-Messier, P A; Rollin, L ^[2]

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1. California Lutheran Univ., Thousand Oaks, CA (United States)
2. Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

Human consequences of sea level rise in California coastal counties reflect increasing population densities. Populations of coastal counties potentially affected by sea level rise are projected to increase from 26.2 million persons in 1990 to 63.3 million persons in 2040. Urbanization dominates Los Angeles and the South Coast and San Francisco Bay and Delta regions. California shoreline populations subject to potential disruption impacts of sea level rise are increasing rapidly. Enhanced risk zones for sea level rise are specified for the Oxnard Plain of Ventura County on the south coast of California. Four separate sea level rise scenarios are considered: (1) low (sea level rise only); (2) moderate (adding erosion); (3) high (adding erosion and storm surges); and (4) a maximum case, a 3 m enhanced risk zone. Population impacts are outlined for the 3 m zone. More serious impacts from storm surges are expected than from sea level rise and erosion. Stakeholders who support or oppose policies which may expose populations to sea level rise include energy, commercial, financial, industrial, public agency, private interest and governmental organizations. These organizations respond to extreme events from differing positions. Vested interests determine the degree of mitigation employed by stakeholders to defer impacts of sea level rise.

• OSTI ID: 470980
• Report Number(s): CONF-960420--; ISBN 0-884736-02-5
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CALIFORNIA
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
POPULATION DYNAMICS
SEA LEVEL
VARIATIONS