Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 code for selected non-meteorological models and parameters

Conference · Tue Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1985

OSTI ID:6102712

Kocher, D C; Killough, G G; Dunning, Jr, D E

We have studied the sensitivity of health impacts and economic costs from hypothetical nuclear reactor accidents, as predicted by the CRAC2 computer code, to undertainties in selected non-meteorological models and parameters. The sources of uncertainty include (1) dose conversion factors for inhalation as affected by uncertainties in the particle size of the carrier aerosol and clearance of radionuclides from the respiratory tract, (2) the weathering half-time for external ground-surface exposure, and (3) transfer coefficients for terrestrial foodchain pathways. Uncertainties in inhalation dose conversion factors affected predicted early injuries by as much as 1 to 2 orders of magnitude in runs with fixed weather sequences, whereas the effects on early fatalities were less than a factor of 2 and on latent cancer fatalities less than 10%. Uncertainties in the weathering half-time for ground-surface exposure affected latent fatalities by a factor of 2 to 3 but economic costs by less than a factor of 2. Uncertainties in the transfer coefficients for terrestrial foodchain pathways affected latent fatalities by less than 15% and had no effect on economic costs. 10 references.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-84OR21400
• OSTI ID: 6102712
• Report Number(s): CONF-850206-24-Summ.; ON: TI85007572
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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