Nuclear power investment risk economic model

Conference · Sun Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1985

OSTI ID:6051175

Houghton, W J; Postula, F D

This paper describes an economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by a utility due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however, the owning utility faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for the incapacitated nuclear power. Additional expenses are incurred by the utility for plant repair and if necessary, decontamination costs. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates. Over 60 economic variables contribute to the net cost uncertainty. The values of these variables are treated as uncertainty distributions and are used in a Monte carlo computer program to evaluate the cost uncertainty (investment risk) associated with damage which could occur from various categories of initiating accidents. As an example, results of computations for various levels of damage associated with a loss of coolant accident are shown as a range of consequential plant downtime and unrecovered cost. A typical investment risk profile is shown for these types of accidents. Cost/revenue values for each economic factor are presented for a Three Mile Island - II type accident, e.g., uncontrolled core heatup. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs.

• Research Organization: GA Technologies, Inc., San Diego, CA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC03-84SF11963
• OSTI ID: 6051175
• Report Number(s): GA-A-18269; CONF-860683-1; ON: DE86007296
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS
210801* -- Nuclear Power Plants-- Economics-- Construction & Operation-- (-1987)
ACCIDENTS
COGENERATION
COST
DEUS
DUAL-PURPOSE POWER PLANTS
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
ENERGY SYSTEMS
FAILURE MODE ANALYSIS
MONTE CARLO METHOD
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
OPERATING COST
POWER GENERATION
POWER PLANTS
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
REACTOR ACCIDENTS
RISK ASSESSMENT
STEAM GENERATION
SYSTEM FAILURE ANALYSIS
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
THERMAL POWER PLANTS