Short-term coal demand model. Technical memorandum TM/ESA/78-01. [Forecasting; by state]
The Coal Analysis Division of the Office of Energy Source Analysis of Energy Information Administration has developed a Short Term Coal Demand Model (STCDM) for use by the Federal Government and interested outside groups. This model provides quarterly forecasts of electrical generation and coal consumption or three years at the state level. This report summarizes the development and design of the model. The electric utility sector is the largest consumer of coal, accounting for approximately 75% of the total demand for bituminous coal in recent years. Consequently, accurate modeling of this sector is essential for forecasting the demand for coal. Various econometric problems and structural irregularities exist, however, that must be taken into account in the final specification. The demand for coal by electric utilities is dependent on the demand for electricity, coal-fired generating capacity, and the relative costs of generating electricity using alternate boiler fuels. Thus, as the demand for electrical energy increases, for whatever reason, the demand for coal used to generate electrical energy would also be expected to increase. Many factors affecting the decisions of electric utilities in their choice of fuel mix and operating options cannot be easily quantified. Some examples are given.
- Research Organization:
- Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Energy Information Administration
- OSTI ID:
- 6040778
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/EIA-0103/1
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320603 -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Municipalities & Community Systems-- Public Utilities-- (1980-)
BITUMINOUS COAL
BLACK COAL
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
CLEAN AIR ACT
COAL
COKE
ELECTRIC POWER
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
EXPORTS
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL CONSUMPTION
FUEL GAS
FUEL SUBSTITUTION
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
INDUSTRIAL PLANTS
LAWS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NATURAL GAS
NORTH AMERICA
POLLUTION LAWS
POWER
POWER GENERATION
PRICES
PUBLIC UTILITIES
USA