Analysis of the world oil market. Analysis report
This analysis considers some of the suggested reasons for the petroleum shortfall in 1979 and examines the degree to which the proposed explanations are supported by existing data. Data from 1974 to the present on oil production, net imports, and stocks for the United States are compared with similar data for other major consuming and producing countries. Several factors combined to cause the recent petroleum shortage, but the overriding factor was the shortfall caused by the Iranian disruption. US supplies are sensitive to import levels because domestic production, after receiving a temporary boost from Alaskan output, appears to have leveled off again in 1978 and, in fact, is experiencing a slight decline (240,000 barrels per day) in the first quarter of 1979. The US petroleum shortfall seems to have been intensified by several other factors. Stocks were drawn down extensively in early 1978, in large part due to price-related maneuvers. Attempts to build up stocks in the latter part of 1978 were then hindered by the Iranian disruption. The data do not support a hypothetical continuing gradual embargo by OPEC. The stock situation may have been worsened further by an international effort to maintain world price stability through suggestions of restraint in purchasing from the spot market. Restraint was not uniform among the consuming nations. Net import figures for the first quarter of 1979 indicate that the US obtained a relatively small share of the additions to world oil supplies. Restraint efforts were eventually relaxed by some US refiners as well, as needs grew to build stocks to minimum acceptable levels. The need to build up stocks for the winter months and at the same time provide gasoline for the heavy driving season resulted in lines at the pumps in many areas of the country.
- Research Organization:
- Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Energy Information Administration
- OSTI ID:
- 5918009
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/EIA-0184/9
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ASIA
EMBARGOES
ENERGY SHORTAGES
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
IMPORTS
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
IRAN
MARKET
MIDDLE EAST
NORTH AMERICA
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OPEC
PETROLEUM
PRODUCTION
USA