Future world oil prices

Conference · Mon Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1979 · Am. Chem. Soc., Div. Fuel Chem., Prepr.; (United States)

OSTI ID:5914669

Kincel, K L

This paper summarizes the major findings of an analysis prepared for the Office of Policy and Evaluation, US Department of Energy. The purpose of the study was to delimit a range of world crude oil prices that might occur between now and 1990. Unlike analyses of most physical systems, analyses of the international energy system are dominated by uncertainty. Two major sources of uncertainty dealt with in this analysis are the future level of OPEC production capacity and future rates of economic growth. Both of these factors affect the balance between supply and demand, hence the price, in the world oil market. In recognition of such uncertainties, the approach taken posits a range of assumptions for each of these factors. Based on the findings of this analysis, it is not unlikely the recent leveling off of real oil prices will come to an end in the next decade. Exactly when oil prices could begin to rise in real terms and to what levels is highly uncertain. It must also be noted that although such increases are likely, they are not inevitable. A number of events, such as extensive energy conservation, accelerated development of new energy sources, or the adoption of aggressive energy policies in the United States and elsewhere could significantly delay another round of escalation in world oil prices. The potential effects of these and other factors are the subject of an ongoing analysis within the Energy Information Administration.

• Research Organization: Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC
• OSTI ID: 5914669
• Report Number(s): CONF-790415-P2
• Conference Information: Journal Name: Am. Chem. Soc., Div. Fuel Chem., Prepr.; (United States) Journal Volume: 24:1
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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