Evaluation of the variance of production cost using a stochastic outage capacity state model

Journal Article · Wed Oct 31 23:00:00 EST 1990 · IEEE Transactions on Power Systems (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers); (USA)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/59.99353· OSTI ID:5905032

Lee, F N; Lin, M; Breipohl, A M ^[1]

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1. Oklahoma Univ., Norman, OK (USA). School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science

This paper presents a stochastic outage capacity state model for evaluating the random error in production cost which is estimated via the Baleriaux-Booth approach. In this paper, the coefficient of variation, which is the standard deviation divided by the mean, is used as the normalized standard random error of production cost. The proposed model is the first model capable of evaluating the variance of production cost for a system of realistic size. The proposed model is used to investigate the IEEE Reliability Test System with an 168-hour simulation horizon. In this 168-hour case, the resulting normalized standard random error is approximately 13%. An approximation for generalizing the results obtained from a short simulation horizon (e.g. a week) to a longer simulation horizon (e.g. a year) is also presented in this paper. This approximation is used to estimate the normalized standard random error for a one year simulation horizon. This result is approximately 2.7%.

• OSTI ID: 5905032
• Journal Information: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers); (USA), Journal Name: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers); (USA) Vol. 5:4; ISSN 0885-8950; ISSN ITPSE
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION
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240700 -- Power Transmission & Distribution-- Economic
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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290100 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Energy Analysis & Modeling
296000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
CAPACITY
COST
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY SYSTEMS
OUTAGES
POWER
POWER GENERATION
POWER SYSTEMS