Oilspill risk analysis for the North Atlantic (February 1984) lease offering
This analysis characterizes the oilspill risks involved in the leasing of proposed areas off the Northeastern coast. Assuming the high volume scenario, in which 0.301 billion barrels of oil are estimated to be present and produced, the probability that one or more oilspills of 1000 barrels or larger will occur and contact land within 30 days travel time is 5% (95% chance that this will not happen). The probability that one or more oilspills of 1000 barrels or greater will occur and contact land within 30 days from production and transportation from existing leases and imports is 89%. Thus, spills from the proposed action are dwarfed by those associated with oil imports. Examination of the probabilities for spills (greater than or equal to 1000 bbls and greater than or equal to 10,000 bbls) occurring and contacting land and the 29 targets within 30 days travel time reveals no statistically significant difference among the proposal and the four deletion alternatives. Similiarily, there is no statistically significant difference between the mean and high volume cases. From the proposed lease area, the highest conditional probabilities to contact land within 30 days occur for Nova Scotia (approximately 30%). The highest conditional probabilities to contact the United States coastline within 30 days are to Nantucket Island (8%). The risks from spills, however small, would be mitigated to the extent that weathering and decay of oil occurs at sea, and by the success of any spill countermeasures which could be attempted. These effects were not directly included in this oilspill model, but should be considered in translating the spill contacts predicted by this study into spill impacts for environmental analysis. 14 refs., 7 figs., 41 tabs.
- Research Organization:
- Minerals Management Service, Reston, VA (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 5874985
- Report Number(s):
- USGS-OFR-83-567; ON: TI85901353
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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