Oilspill risk analysis for the Diapir Field (June 1984) Outer Continental Shelf lease offering
This analysis characterizes the oilspill risks associated with the Diapir Field lease offering (June 1984). Assuming the conditional mean resource estimate, the proposed lease offering will result in an estimated 3.0 billion barrels of oil being found and produced off the North Alaska coast over a period spanning 27 years. There is a 16% chance that no spills of 1000 barrels or larger will occur and contact land within 30 days during the open water season. There is an 83% chance that sometime during this 27 year period 1 to 2 spills of 1000 barrels or larger could occur due to the proposed lease offering and contact land (during the open water season) after being at sea less than 30 days. The risks from spills would be mitigated to the extent that weathering and decay of oil occurs at sea, and by the success of any spill countermeasures which would be attempted; these effects were not directly included in this oilspill model, but should be considered in translating the spill contacts predicted by this study into spill impacts for environmental analysis. For purposes of comparison, risks from existing sources of potential oilspills were also charterized over the same 27 year period as the proposed leases. These risks include all existing oil leases as well as tanker transportation of Canadian oil through the study area; together they represent more than 8 billion barrels produced and/or transported over 27 years. It is estimated that over the next 27 years these existing sources will result in 2 to 12 spills of 1000 barrels or larger occurring and contacting land during the open water season. (Again, these estimates do not include weathering or spill countermeasures). Two tract deletion alternatives were considered in this analysis. The probability that no spills will occur and contact land within 30 days is 18% while the east deletion increases this probability to 33%. 19 refs., 3 figs., 53 tabs.
- Research Organization:
- Minerals Management Service, Reston, VA (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 5794067
- Report Number(s):
- USGS-OFR-83-570; ON: TI85901328
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Oilspill risk analysis for the Gulf of Alaska/Cook Inlet lease offering (October 1984)
Oilspill risk analysis for the North Atlantic (February 1984) lease offering
Related Subjects
020900* -- Petroleum-- Environmental Aspects
ALASKA
CONTINENTAL MARGIN
CONTINENTAL SHELF
ENERGY SOURCE DEVELOPMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
FEDERAL REGION X
GEOLOGIC DEPOSITS
LEASING
MINERAL RESOURCES
NORTH AMERICA
OFFSHORE PLATFORMS
OIL SPILLS
PETROLEUM DEPOSITS
PIPELINES
PROBABILITY
RESOURCES
RISK ASSESSMENT
SHIPS
TANKER SHIPS
USA