First strike: myth or reality

Journal Article · Sun Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1981 · Bull. At. Sci.; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.1981.11458903· OSTI ID:5852101

Anderson, J E

Before accepting the military establishment's belief that alleged Soviet first-strike capability makes the MX program urgent, it is worthwhile to examine both the evidence and the conclusion. Using unclassified information, the author examines the arguments in terms of what kind of attack the Soviets might make, how the attack will affect the Soviet Union, missile testing, the real-kill probability, the miss probability, and the perception of a threat and sees little justification for confidence in the results of a first strike. He feels, however, that administration beliefs will be based on intuition and ideology rather than technical assessment. That, coupled with the acknowledged first-strike capability of the US, increases the danger. 12 references. (DCK)

• Research Organization: Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis
• OSTI ID: 5852101
• Journal Information: Bull. At. Sci.; (United States), Journal Name: Bull. At. Sci.; (United States) Vol. 37:9; ISSN BASIA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290600* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Nuclear Energy
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NATIONAL DEFENSE
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