Outlook for US lube oil supply and demand

Journal Article · Tue Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1983 · Natl. Pet. Refiners Assoc., (Tech. Pap.); (United States)

OSTI ID:5799316

Brecht, F

This paper examines the domestic demand for automotive and industrial lubricants to the year 2000 and evaluates the ability of U.S. refiners to meet the associated demand for base stocks. Changes in the supply/demand picture over the past several years are also reviewed. In the late 1970's, lube base stocks had been in short supply as healthy increases in demand pushed U.S. refiners to near maximum operating levels. Imports were increased to what were then record high levels and exports were reduced. This situation began to reverse itself in mid-1980 as marketers began to feel the impact of recession here and abroad. U.S. base stock consumption has since declined dramatically, to a level in 1982 estimated to be 17.5% below that of 1979's peak. In the meantime, refiners had added another 7.0 MB/CD to manufacturing capacity. 1982 lube plant operations are estimated to have dropped as low as 62% of nameplate capacity. The outlook for recovery is conservative. Due to continued depressed demand in certain market segments, 1983's increase in base oil demand is projected to be held to only 2%. Gains in 1984 and 1985 will be more robust, in the area of 6% per year. Thereafter, the overall rate of growth will drop to under 1% per year. The outlooks for automotive and industrial lubricants demand are summarized. Due to a forecast of greater relative growth in synthetic and water-based lubricants, base stock consumption is forecast to increase at a slower pace than that of the total finished lubricants volume.

• Research Organization: Pennzoil Products Company, Houston, Texas
• OSTI ID: 5799316
• Journal Information: Natl. Pet. Refiners Assoc., (Tech. Pap.); (United States), Journal Name: Natl. Pet. Refiners Assoc., (Tech. Pap.); (United States) Vol. AM-83-22; ISSN NPRPA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
AUTOMOBILES
CONSUMPTION RATES
EXPORTS
FORECASTING
IMPORTS
INDUSTRIAL PLANTS
INDUSTRY
LUBRICANTS
LUBRICATING OILS
MANUFACTURING
MARKETERS
OILS
ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
OTHER ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
PETROLEUM REFINERIES
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
VEHICLES