Expert judgement on inadvertent human intrusion into the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
- Hawaii Univ., Hilo, HI (United States)
- University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
- Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Four expert-judgment teams have developed analyses delineating possible future societies in the next 10,000 years in the vicinity of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Expert-judgment analysis was used to address the question of future societies because neither experimentation, observation, nor modeling can resolve such uncertainties. Each of the four, four-member teams, comprised of individuals with expertise in the physical, social, or political sciences, developed detailed qualitative assessments of possible future societies. These assessments include detailed discussions of the underlying physical and societal factors that would influence society and the likely modes of human-intrusion at the WIPP, as well as the probabilities of intrusion. Technological development, population growth, economic development, conservation of information, persistence of government control, and mitigation of danger from nuclear waste were the factors the teams believed to be most important. Likely modes of human-intrusion were categorized as excavation, disposal/storage, tunneling, drilling, and offsite activities. Each team also developed quantitative assessments by providing probabilities of various alternative futures, of inadvertent human intrusion, and in some cases, of particular modes of intrusion. The information created throughout this study will be used in conjunction with other types of information, including experimental data, calculations from physical principles and computer models, and perhaps other judgments, as input to performance assessment.'' The more qualitative results of this study will be used as input to another expert panel considering markers to deter inadvertent human intrusion at the WIPP.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-76DP00789
- OSTI ID:
- 5789311
- Report Number(s):
- SAND-90-3063; ON: DE92009566
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
The use of formal and informal expert judgments when interpreting data for performance assessments
The use of formal and informal expert judgments when interpreting data for performance assessments
Related Subjects
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS
WIPP
HUMAN INTRUSION
DRILLING
EXCAVATION
PHYSICAL PROTECTION
PLANNING
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL
SAFETY ANALYSIS
SECURITY
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
TUNNELING
FUNCTIONAL MODELS
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
MANAGEMENT
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
PILOT PLANTS
RADIOACTIVE WASTE FACILITIES
RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT
UNDERGROUND FACILITIES
US DOE
US ORGANIZATIONS
WASTE DISPOSAL
WASTE MANAGEMENT
052002* - Nuclear Fuels- Waste Disposal & Storage
054000 - Nuclear Fuels- Health & Safety