Expert judgement on inadvertent human intrusion into the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Technical Report · Sun Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1991

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5789311· OSTI ID:5789311

Hora, S C ^[1]; von Winterfeldt, D ^[2]; Trauth, K M ^[3]

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1. Hawaii Univ., Hilo, HI (United States)
2. University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
3. Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Four expert-judgment teams have developed analyses delineating possible future societies in the next 10,000 years in the vicinity of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Expert-judgment analysis was used to address the question of future societies because neither experimentation, observation, nor modeling can resolve such uncertainties. Each of the four, four-member teams, comprised of individuals with expertise in the physical, social, or political sciences, developed detailed qualitative assessments of possible future societies. These assessments include detailed discussions of the underlying physical and societal factors that would influence society and the likely modes of human-intrusion at the WIPP, as well as the probabilities of intrusion. Technological development, population growth, economic development, conservation of information, persistence of government control, and mitigation of danger from nuclear waste were the factors the teams believed to be most important. Likely modes of human-intrusion were categorized as excavation, disposal/storage, tunneling, drilling, and offsite activities. Each team also developed quantitative assessments by providing probabilities of various alternative futures, of inadvertent human intrusion, and in some cases, of particular modes of intrusion. The information created throughout this study will be used in conjunction with other types of information, including experimental data, calculations from physical principles and computer models, and perhaps other judgments, as input to performance assessment.'' The more qualitative results of this study will be used as input to another expert panel considering markers to deter inadvertent human intrusion at the WIPP.

• Research Organization: Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: AC04-76DP00789
• OSTI ID: 5789311
• Report Number(s): SAND--90-3063; ON: DE92009566
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

052002* -- Nuclear Fuels-- Waste Disposal & Storage
054000 -- Nuclear Fuels-- Health & Safety
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES
DRILLING
EXCAVATION
FUNCTIONAL MODELS
HUMAN INTRUSION
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
MANAGEMENT
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
PHYSICAL PROTECTION
PILOT PLANTS
PLANNING
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL
RADIOACTIVE WASTE FACILITIES
RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT
SAFETY ANALYSIS
SECURITY
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
TUNNELING
UNDERGROUND FACILITIES
US DOE
US ORGANIZATIONS
WASTE DISPOSAL
WASTE MANAGEMENT
WIPP