Italy: estimates of future energy/GDP relationships

Technical Report · Sat Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 1979

OSTI ID:5743051

Davison, C; Allen, E L

The Italian economy has experienced very rapid growth since World War II, accompanied by a sharp increase in the consumption of energy, the growth of which has been more rapid than the development of the economy. For the period 1960-76, energy consumption grew an average of 6.7% annually, compared with an annual growth rate of 4.6% for gross domestic product. The ratio of energy use per unit of GNP increased in every year from the early 1960s until the oil price rise in 1973 and after a brief pause then began to rise again. By 1975, when the E/GDP ratios of other industrialized OECD countries were hitting record lows, Italy's ratio was at an all-time high. This increasing E/GDP ratio has been largely the result of Italy's very rapid industrial expansion and its attempt to catch up with the stage of industrial maturity already achieved in other developed countries. It is anticipated that the E/GDP ratio will decline in the future as Italy's industrial expansion slows down. Increased efficiencies will flow from the application of new technologies and replacement of old plants. Pressure from higher oil prices and structural changes in Italian society also will dampen down the E/GDP ratio, as it has in other industrialized countries. GDP growth will slacken as the fertility rate continues its downward trend and the average workweek falls. We estimate that by the year 2000 gross energy consumption in Italy will total 6.7 quads, orabout 25% above the 1976 level, and that the E/GDP index (1976 = 100) will decline to about 79, with the residential and industrial sectors accounting for almost all of the decline.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., Washington, DC (USA). Inst. for Energy Analysis
• DOE Contract Number: EY-76-C-05-0033
• OSTI ID: 5743051
• Report Number(s): ORAU/IEA-79-20(M)
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
ITALY
ECONOMIC GROWTH
DATA COMPILATION
ECONOMY
EFFICIENCY
ENERGY DEMAND
FORECASTING
GRAPHS
NUMERICAL DATA
POPULATION DENSITY
TABLES
DATA
DATA FORMS
DEMAND
EUROPE
INFORMATION
292000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
290200 - Energy Planning & Policy- Economics & Sociology