Federal Republic of Germany: estimates of future energy/GDP relationships
Postwar trends in the West German economy, demography, and energy use were analyzed. The base year is 1976, and projections are made up to the year 2000 for gross domestic product (GDP) and sectoral energy demand. West Germany's 2.8% average annual GDP growth rate for the 1970s contrasts sharply with the 5.4% rate achieved in the 1960s. In part, this is due to a decline in the rate of capital formation from the level that prevailed in the 1960s. Also contributing to the drop in GDP growth has been a slower rate that reflects earlier retirements. Restrictions on immigration, imposed since 1975, mean that the slow domestic additions to the labor force will not be offset by migrants. The West German population decline is expected to persist as a consequence of the unusually low 1.5 to 1.6 total fertility rate. ORAU/IEA projects future GDP growth to level off at 2.9% a year, on the average, between now and 2000. This projection places German economic growth below that of Japan, Canada, and France but ahead of that projected for Italy and the United Kingdom. The relationship between West Germany energy demand and economic growth was stable in the postwar period. In 1976, total energy consumption stood at 9.8 quads and is projected to increase to 12.7 quads in 2000, an average annual 1.1 percent increase. The E/GDP ratio is expected to improve substantially by the year 2000, with the residential sector leading the way in energy efficiency.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., TN (USA). Inst. for Energy Analysis
- DOE Contract Number:
- EY-76-C-05-0033
- OSTI ID:
- 5621002
- Report Number(s):
- ORAU/IEA-79-22(M)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Italy: estimates of future energy/GDP relationships
Japan: estimates of future energy/GNP relationships in energy use
Related Subjects
POLICY AND ECONOMY
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
FORECASTING
FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
DATA COMPILATION
ECONOMY
EMPLOYMENT
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY SOURCES
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
LABOR
NUMERICAL DATA
POPULATION DENSITY
TABLES
DATA
DATA FORMS
EFFICIENCY
EUROPE
INFORMATION
291000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Conservation
292000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
320000 - Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization
290200 - Energy Planning & Policy- Economics & Sociology